A real options approach to growth opportunities and resilience aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic

PurposeFacing the challenges posed by the pandemic of COVID-19, this paper aims to contribute to the resilience of businesses through the development of a real options approach (ROA) that provides alternatives and opportunities for a decision process under situations when future events and outcomes are unknown and not capable of being known from current information.Design/methodology/approachThis paper involves a stochastic modelling process in generating a set of absolute option values, using available data and scenarios from the COVID-19 pandemic event. The modelling and simulations using ROA suggest how strategic portfolios resolve the growing problem during the endemic to all but in the most isolated societies.FindingsThis study finds the emergent correlation between circuit breakers and lockdowns, which have brought about a "distorted gravity” effect (inverse growth of global businesses and trades). However, "time-to-build” real options (i.e. deferral, expand, switch and compound exchange) start to function in the adaptive-transformative capabilities for growth opportunities of both government and corporate sectors. Significantly, some sectors grow faster than others while the compound exchange remains primarily challenging. Clearly, the government and corporate sectors are entangled, inevitably, the decoherence allows for the former to change uncertainty in the latter;therefore, government sector options change option values in the corporate sector.Originality/valueThe ROA by empirically focusing on both government and corporate sectors demonstrates under conditions of uncertainty how options in decision-making generate opportunities that hitherto have not been recognised and exercised upon by research in the immediate context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Importantly, the ROA provides an insightful concatenation (capability–behaviour approach) that drives resilience.

Managing disruptions in the maritime industry – a systematic literature review

PurposeThis paper presents a systematic review of the literature in the domain of maritime disruption management, upon which future research framework and agenda are proposed. Two review questions, i.e. the measures that are employed to manage disruptions and how these contribute to resilience performance, were pursued.Design/methodology/approachThe systematic literature review procedure was strictly followed, including identification and planning, execution, selection and synthesis and analysis. A review protocol was developed, including scope, databases and criteria guiding the review. Following this, 47 articles were eventually extracted for the systematic review to identify themes for not only addressing the review questions but also highlighting future research opportunities.FindingsIt was found that earlier studies mainly focused on measures, which are designed using mathematical models, management frameworks and other technical support systems, to analyse and evaluate risks, and their impacts on maritime players at the levels of organisation, transport system and region in which the organisation is embedded. There is, however, a lack of research that empirically examines how these measures would contribute to enhancing the resilience performance of maritime firms and their organisational performance as a whole. Subsequently, a Digitally Embedded and Technically Support Maritime Disruption Management (DEST-MDM) model is proposed.Research limitations/implicationsThis review is constrained by studies recorded by the Web of Science only. Nevertheless, the proposed research model would expectedly contribute to enhancing knowledge building in the specific domain of maritime disruption management and supply chain management overall while providing meaningful managerial implications to policymakers and managers in the maritime industry.Originality/valueThis research is perhaps one of the first studies which presents a systematic review of literature in maritime disruption management and proposes a future research framework that establishes the link between disruption management and resilience and organisational performance for empirical validation.

Social insecurity and varieties of family resilience strategies during the COVID-19 pandemic

PurposeThis study is aimed at developing an understanding of the consequences of the pandemic on families' socioeconomic resilience, and the strategies adopted by the families in overcoming social vulnerabilities amid uncertainty.Design/methodology/approachThe materials for this study consist of semi-structured interviews with 21 families spread across the South Sumatra Province, Indonesia. Families in the study represent four different income levels, namely very high, high, middle and low, and who also work in the informal sector. Each family has at least 1 or more members who fall into the vulnerable category (children, the elderly, people with disabilities unemployed or having potential economic vulnerability).FindingsTwo main findings are outlined. Regardless of their socioeconomic status, many of the families analyzed adopted similar strategies to remain resilient. Among the strategies are classifying the urgency of purchasing consumer goods based on financial capacity rather than needs, leveraging digital economic opportunities as alternative sources of income, utilizing more extensive informal networks and going into debt. Another interesting finding shows that the pandemic, to some extent, has saved poor families from social insecurity. This is supported by evidence showing that social distancing measures during the pandemic have reduced the intensity of sociocultural activities, which require invited community members to contribute financially. The reduction of sociocultural activities in the community has provided more potential savings for the poor.Research limitations/implicationsIn this study, informants who provided information about their family conditions represent a major segment of the workforce and tend to be technologically savvy and younger, due to the use of Zoom as a platform for conducting interviews. Therefore, there may be a bias in the results. Another limitation is that since the interviewees were recommended by our social network in the fields, there is a risk of a distorted selection of participants.Originality/valueThis study offers insights that are critical in helping to analyze family patterns in developing countries in mitigating the risks and uncertainties caused by COVID-19. In addition, the literature on social policy and development could benefit from further research on COVID-19 as an alternative driver to identify mechanisms that could bring about change that would result in "security.” Critical questions and limitations of this study are presented at the end of the paper to be responded to as future research agenda.

Sovereign Debt Crisis in Sri Lanka and Bangladesh: A Comparative Study

Using IMF's World Economic Outlook (WEO) data for the macroeconomic variables, this study comparatively examines the sovereign debt crises in Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. It identifies different macroeconomic factors related to the sovereign debt crisis, investigates their interrelations, and explores if their debt crises are similar. It shows that the general revenue to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ratios of Sri Lanka degraded to converge with the upgrading status of Bangladesh during the Covid-19 period. Since 2010, Sri Lanka has maintained a well-off economic status with per capita GDP, while Bangladesh has a long way to go yet. The general expenses to GDP ratio of Sri Lanka shows stresses on its GDP, while that of Bangladesh is more relaxed. Sri Lanka has overstressed debt to GDP ratio along with Balance of Payments (BOP) deficits, while Bangladesh has continued traces of managed debt to GDP ratio along with BOP surpluses. Bangladesh has taken enough precautions in their sovereign debt management, compared to Sri Lanka. Even in 2020, Bangladesh maintained progressive investment track over the threshold limit of 30%, while Sri Lanka fell into a debt trap. Following the pandemic, Bangladesh has enjoyed a gross national savings to GDP ratio of above the threshold of 25%, while Sri Lanka is going through a critical phase. It shows governance myopia of Bangladesh regarding its imbalanced current account positions, while governance myopia of Sri Lanka exists with reference to its imbalanced current account positions, adverse gross debts, and government borrowing as well.

A position paper on the Quest for Education Quality and Inclusivity in Low Resource Environments such as Zimbabwe through Social Media

Social media has revolutionised human interaction globally especially on the informal front. This paper proposes that the social media facility could be ‘tamed' to help bridge the educational divide that is apparent especially in developing countries such as Zimbabwe and that was magnified by the Covid-19 pandemic. The pandemic split education provision along income lines with those from the higher income bracket accessing educational instruction virtually even during such an ‘emergency' while those from the low income group were literally on sabbatical, virtually excluded. The obtaining scenario threatens realisation of Sustainable Development Goal Number 4 by 2030 as planned by the United Nations. The particular goal is aimed at ensuring "inclusive and equitable quality education and promote life-long learning opportunities for all”. In some instances, some candidates get to the examination room so inadequately prepared that the situation can be described as de facto exclusion. In order to assist Covid-19 pandemic affected learners and to uplift education quality in low income communities, this paper recommends the provision of a tablet per class/grade that should be viewed as a learning/teaching tool. The class teacher can use the tablet to download material, show educational videos to the class, audio/video record learners for educational ends, receive educational materials from the Ministry and its partners and avail these in an interesting multimodal manner to the learners.

Effect of Remittance Inflows on External Debt in Developing Countries

This paper analyzes the effect of remittance inflows on external debt in developing countries, by identifying international reserves as a potential transmission channel. Using panel data over the period 1970–2017 and covering 50 low-and middle-income countries worldwide, we find a positive and significant effect of remittance inflows on the external debt-to-GDP ratio. We also find a negative and significant effect of international reserves on external debt. After controlling for international reserves, the effect of remittance inflows on external debt increases;it remains positive and significant. The results suggest that the role of international reserves as a self-insurance mechanism, and the Dutch disease effect related to remittance inflows are at play. In addition, we find negative and significant effects of economic growth and savings-investment gap on external debt. We also find positive and significant effects of the nominal exchange rate and the United States lending interest rate on external debt. We discuss the policy implications of these findings, while highlighting factors that policymakers should focus on for containing external debt in developing countries in the post-COVID-19.

Impact of Renewable Energy on the Economy of Saudi Arabia

The objective of the study was to identify the impact of renewable energy on Saudi economy during 2000-2021. Analytical techniques were used to conduct this study. An analysis of the study used a set of variables, in which Renewable energy perceives as independent variable and the dependent variables are GDP per capita, net foreign direct investment, unemployment, fixed capital formation, and net foreign trade. The data of the study were analyzed using the E-views program. According to the study, renewable energy has an impact on certain economic variables and does not have an impact on others. A partial validity is found for the study's central hypothesis. According to our findings, renewable energy contributes significantly to net foreign direct investment, unemployment, and fixed capital formation, but not to GDP per capita, net foreign trade, or fixed capital formation.

Investigation of Risk Factors Influencing the Safety of Maritime Containers Supply Chain: In the Period of the Pandemic

Maritime security is facing many challenges due to war conflicts, geopolitics, sanctions, and pandemics. The supply chain for maritime containers has faced considerable obstacles as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Numerous factors, such as port closures, travel restrictions, and a decreased workforce, have impacted the supply chain. The risk of cargo theft, piracy, and other security events has increased as a result of these difficulties. Therefore, it is essential to look at the risk variables that may affect the security of the marine container supply chain during the pandemic. This research paper highlights those risks through the following three indexes: the likelihood index (LI), severity index (SI), and average risk index (ARI) by analyzing 64 risk factors that were prepared and designed by incorporating the Delphi expert survey technique to prepare a systematic questionnaire. The article addresses worries over the COVID-19 pandemic's effects on international supply networks. The causes of the most recent global shipping industry disruptions and their impact on supply chains have been thoroughly examined. In order to reduce the number of disruptions in global supply chains and lower the direct and indirect costs for consumers, the authors have also mentioned the necessary actions that must be implemented. The results concluded after the analysis pointed to "management activities,” such as human resources or the working environment as having the highest possibility of going wrong, whereas "operation activities” were judged to likely be the fatal ones if the security of maritime containers was ever compromised. The main objective of the study is to evaluate how the COVID-19 epidemic may affect international shipping, particularly container shipping, which is currently the most important link in the world's multimodal land–sea supply chains.

A twenty years bibliometric analysis (2002 – 2021) of business economics research in ASEAN

ASEAN is predicted to be the world's largest single market by 2030, after the US, China, and the EU. This study aims to discover research performance in all ASEAN countries, including identifying output levels, research focus, and influential authors in the region. The approach used in this study is a bibliometric analysis of publications indexed in the WoS database for the past two decades (2002–2021). Of the more than 20,000 documents analyzed, it was indicated that each ASEAN country has exclusive and non-exclusive keywords. Singapore has the highest number of citations among the other ASEAN countries.

Taiwan's Food Resiliency - or Not - in a Conflict with China

The US military, intelligence, and diplomatic communities have overlooked a key vulnerability in their assessment of a potential military conflict between China and Taiwan- Taiwan's growing reliance on agricultural imports and its food stocks (except for rice) that could endure trade disruptions for only six months. This article assesses Taiwan's agricultural sector and its ability to feed the country's population if food imports and production are disrupted;identifies the food products that should be prioritized in resupply operations, based on Taiwan's nutritional needs and domestic food production;and outlines the required logistical assets. These findings underscore the urgency for US military planners to develop long-term logistical solutions for this complex strategic issue.

Savings groups and the COVID-19 pandemic in Zimbabwe: Critical assessment of the informal social protection scheme

The COVID-19 pandemic has ravaged nations and people's lives throughout the globe across multiple dimensions. Measures to curtail the spread of the disease in Zimbabwe have stifled the capacity of the majority of the population, relegated to the informal sector, to source a living. In the absence of robust social protection interventions from the state, these measures pose a more immediate threat to the lives of marginalised and vulnerable communities than the pandemic itself. Savings groups (SGs), which have providedfinancial relief andprotection from economic shocks and stressors to such population groups, have been entrapped by the preventive and containment measures employed by the Zimbabwean authorities. It is unclear how and to what degree such conditions leave underserved populations exposed to socioeconomic shocks as such vital informal social protection alternatives have been rendered ineffectual. Using documentary review, this study examines the fate of SGs in such socially restricted and economically debilitating circumstances. In addition, the authors discuss strategies for improving the sustainability of such grassroots micro-finance initiatives under COVID-19 induced contraptions. Programmatic andpolicy measures necessary for retaining and protecting the viability of (SGs) as alternatives for informal social protection for marginalised and vulnerable groups under COVID-19 are advanced.

Online innovation and repurchase intentions in hotels: the mediating effect of customer experience

PurposeThis study investigates how customer experience mediates the relationship between online innovation and repurchase intention in the hotel industry in Ghana.Design/methodology/approachData was collected from 167 clients from a two-star hotel in Accra, the capital city of Ghana. Structural equation modelling was used to analyse the relationship between the variables.FindingsResults from the analysis indicate that online innovation positively leads to higher repurchase intentions and better customer experience, affirming that customer experience leads to repurchase intentions. Thus, while online innovation leads to repurchase intentions, the strength of this repurchase intention depends on customer experience. Therefore, customer experience mediates the relationship between online innovation and repurchase intention in the hotel industry.Research limitations/implicationsThis study addressed only the customer's point of view;future studies could investigate the subject from the managers and other stakeholders' point of view to get a holistic view. Also, the sample size could be improved, and the study could be conducted in other African countries for comparison purposes.Practical implicationsThe study shows that online innovation does not automatically lead to increased positive repurchase intention. Hotel managers must, therefore, enforce good customer experience for better profitability.Originality/valueAs far as the researchers know, limited studies have been conducted into how customer experience mediates online innovation and repurchase intention in the hotel industry in Ghana using structural equation modelling. This makes this research unique in Ghana. This study makes an original contribution by measuring the real effect of innovation on repurchase intentions in the hotel industry in Ghana.

Insights about the Effects of COVID-19 on International Trade during the Main Pandemic Years in Romania and Poland

The COVID-19 crisis disrupted the economic life of the entire world and caused various disturbances at different levels in economies and societies. Consequently, the study of the economic impact of the health crisis became necessary to identify the influences that the health crisis had on numerous activities, including economic ones. There are calls for more studies to be conducted about the effects of COVID-19 at different levels so that lessons can be learned. The present paper answers these calls and focuses on the analysis of the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on international trade at the country level by investigating two European countries, Romania and Poland. First, it analyzes the macro-level context of the two countries during the COVID-19 pandemic. Then, a regression methodology is employed to measure the impact of the COVID-19 burden (which includes the number of cases and the number of deaths related to COVID-19) on the export and import flows in Romania and Poland. The investigation refers to the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic, 2020–2021, which were the most significant. The results of the regression analysis showed that international trade was affected by the COVID-19 burden in the two countries, but the influences were different in the two countries. Exports and imports in Poland were more affected by COVID-19 than exports and imports in Romania. COVID-19 also had a higher impact on the import than the export flows in both countries during the period considered. The negative assumed relationships between COVID-19 burden and international trade flows were not verified in these specific country cases. This paper provides more evidence about the economic impact of the COVID-19 crisis, contributing to a better understanding of the economic effects of health crises in general.

Path dependence or steps for major reforms? Pandemic-related social protection measures in ten OECD countries

This article examines with empirical evidence the social protection measures implemented in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in ten welfare states in the Global North. We analysed the potential similarities and differences in responses by welfare regimes. The comparative study was conducted with data from 169 measures, collected from domestic sources as well as from COVID-19 response databases and reports. In qualitative terms, we redeveloped Hall's theory on the distinction between first-, second- and third-order changes. In accordance with the path-dependence thesis, we show systematically that the majority of the studied changes (91%) relied on a pre-pandemic tool demonstrating flexibility within social security systems. The relative share of completely new instruments was notable but modest (9%). Thematically, the social protection measures converged beyond traditional welfare regimes, particularly among the European welfare states. Somewhat surprisingly, the changes to social security systems related not just to emergency aid to mitigate traditional risks but, to a greater extent, also to prevent new risks from being actualised.

The effect of increasing health disaster risk and public spending on economy conditions: a DSGE perspective

PurposeThe main motivation of the present study is to understand the severity of the effect of health shock on Iran's oil economy and analyze the role of government under these conditions.Design/methodology/approachDynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models can show the precise interactions between market decision-makers in the context of general equilibrium. Since the duration of the virus outbreak and its effect on the economy is not known, it is more appropriate to use these models.FindingsThe results of the survey of hands-on policies scenarios compared to the state of hands-off policy indicate that the effect of government expending shocks on the economy under pandemic disease conditions has much less feedback on macroeconomic variables.Originality/valueAs a proposed policy, it is recommended that the government play a stabilizing role under pandemic disease conditions.Key messages There is no study regarding health shock and its economic effects in Iran using DSGE models. Also, in foreign studies, the health shock in an oil economy has not been modeled.The general idea in the present study is how the prevalence of a pandemic infectious disease affects the dynamics of macroeconomic variables.In three different scenarios, according to the persistence of health disaster risk and the deterioration rate of health capital due to this shock, the model is simulated.In modeling pandemic diseases, quarantine hours are considered as part of the total time of individuals.According to the research findings, it is recommended that the government, as a policy-maker, play a stabilizing role under pandemic crises conditions.

The role of digital transformation in the socio-economic recovery post COVID-19

Several measures have been taken to reduce the impact of COVID-19 pandemic. One of these measures is the broad digital transformation that has rapidly and unexpectedly forced the deployment of digital technologies into corporations' business models and organizational structures. This digital transformation has affected all the socio-economic aspects. In response to the COVID-19 global pandemic, this paper explores the impact of the implementation of digital transformation on the socio-economic recovery by employing cross-sectional regression analysis on 99 countries in year 2020. The paper analyzes the impact of digital transformation on each of economic growth, health care, and income inequality. The results reveal that the digital transformation has a positive and significant impact on the GDP per capita in which a 1% increase in digital transformation results in 1.52% increase in GDP per capita, a positive and significant impact on income equality in which a 1% increase in digital transformation leads to 0.05% increase in income equality, and a negative and significant impact on infant mortality rate, in which a 1% increase in digital transformation results in 0.85% decrease in infant mortality rate which reflects its positive impact on the health care. Hence, the digital transformation has a positive and significant effects on different socio-economic aspects.

The impact of military expenditures on out of pocket healthcare payments: international evidence based on a dynamic panel data analysis

PurposeThe empirical analysis dealt in this paper emphasizes on the impact of military expenditures on out of pocket (OOP) healthcare payments. A sizeable body of defence economics literature has investigated the trade-off between military and public health expenditure, by testing the crowding-out or growth-stimulating hypothesis;does military expenditure scaling up crowd-out or promote governmental resources for social and welfare programs, including also state health financing?Design/methodology/approachIn this study, panel data from 2000 to 2018 for 129 countries is used to examine the impact of military expenditure on OOP healthcare payments. The dataset of countries is categorized into four income-groups based on World Bank's income-group classification. Dynamic panel data methodology is applied to meet study objectives.FindingsThe findings of this study indicate that military expenditure positively affects OOP payments in all the selected groups of countries, strongly supporting in this way the crowding-out hypothesis whereby increased military expenditure reduces the public financing on health. Study econometric results are robust since different and alternative changes in specifications and samples are applied in our analysis.Practical implicationsUnder the economic downturn backdrop for several economies in the previous decade and on the foreground of a potential limited governmental fiscal space related to the Covid-19 pandemic adverse economic effects, this study provides evidence that policy-makers have to adjust their government policy initiatives and prioritize Universal Health Coverage objectives. Consequently, the findings of this study reflect the necessity of governments as far as possible to moderate military expenditures and increase public financing on health in order to strengthen health care systems efficiency against households OOP spending for necessary healthcare utilization.Originality/valueDespite the fact that a sizeable body of defence economics literature has extensively examined the impact of military spending on total and public health expenditures, nevertheless to the best of our knowledge there is no empirical evidence of any direct effect of national defence spending on the main private financing component of health systems globally;the OOP healthcare payments.

QUALITY-OF-LIFE INDEX ANALYSIS APPLIED TO BRICS AND G7 COUNTRIES

The main aim of the current article is to compare economic and Quality of Life (QL) indices in G7- (Germany, France, United States, United Kingdom, Japan, Italy and Canada) and BRICS-member countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa). The research was developed based on selecting indices available in the NUMBEO, UN (United Nations) and OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) databases. Results have evidenced that emerging countries belonging to the BRICS bloc have shown lower QL indices than those observed for developed countries in the G7 bloc. With respect to economic data, the USA, China, Japan and Germany were the countries presenting the highest GDP growth. It was possible concluding that countries belonging to the G7 block have better economic and labor indices, which, in their turn, are associated with better QoL indices.

Family Business Adapting a New Digital-Based Economy: Opportunities and Challenges for Future Research

Firms need to transform dramatically to maintain their operations and survive. The pandemic has shown how family businesses (FBs) are solving complex problems faster than non-family. They have demonstrated the flexibility to transform and adapt because of their closeness to the firm's processes and management and their social network inside and outside organizations that allow them to respond quickly to market needs based on a fast-making decisions process. FBs' knowledge, which is embedded in their values, making decisions process, and remaining for generations, requires resilient and robust management. The relationship between family values and FB management differentiates by their complexity and generational aspect. These relations demonstrate that personal values can influence professionalization, succession, and innovation processes. In this regard, there is a lack of research to understand the findings, practices, and processes associated with managing the knowledge flows through which FBs execute innovation strategies and to build on professionalization and succession capabilities that could provide different avenues of innovation and adaptation for dealing with turbulent and uncertain times. This editorial intends to provoke discussion on what we know about family businesses and how they face different challenges in a complex world to survive. FBs must develop adaptive strategies and strengthen crucial processes to generate a competitive and sustainable advantage. Knowledge management provides models and tools to reinforce tacit knowledge management's relevance in the professionalization and succession processes. Knowledge management becomes critical in an era in which uncertainty seems to be permanent.